TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$125,822
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,353

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,822 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9531…9099backed Yes12c3,970$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4060…c1c4backed Yes8c3,339$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.717135.2%25 W · 46 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+74.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes6c1,940$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.96633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0278…00e6backed Yes22c1,906$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8433…6e0fbacked Yes16c1,596$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed Yes16c1,575$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes16c1,445$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.0922433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes9c1,395$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.667525.3%19 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c1,383$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.564413.6%6 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick6cpaid+101.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes20c1,374$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.923016.7%5 W · 25 L-6.5wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-65.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9322…01e3backed Yes16c1,282$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes6c1,262$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4212049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked Yes21c1,252$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes8c1,171$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.223847.4%18 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xb00b…fbcabacked Yes16c1,106$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes19c1,070$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes2c1,060$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes11c1,019$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7814325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes16c1,008$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes17c983$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x926a…3b1ebacked Yes17c967$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes16c963$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed Yes16c829$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7039…2d8abacked Yes16c814$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b4b…1fb3backed Yes16c805$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes16c803$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83be…6f94backed Yes16c802$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes16c799$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3acc…973dbacked Yes16c781$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes16c777.45$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.177030%21 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71fb…9b65backed Yes17c777$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0016…1b7abacked Yes17c776$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9f…ee38backed Yes16c775$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5481…50ecbacked Yes16c755$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e2…e1babacked No75c746$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6007…9553backed Yes13c728$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7270…add3backed Yes13c726$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd68…cdd3backed No75c694$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad04…dce5backed No74c693$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce16…b18ebacked Yes13c687$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes11c664.09$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.251323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66f2…2badbacked Yes25c655$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5d8…b773backed Yes16c636.27$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed Yes16c610$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ece…35e8backed Yes16c602$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes16c593.04$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.898528.2%24 W · 61 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7238…e52dbacked Yes16c585$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes16c575$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe24a…fc69backed Yes25c570$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3719…bd84backed Yes16c566$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dd…5514backed Yes16c564$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a04…2310backed Yes16c557$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed No75c555$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes16c534$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb993…6e3abacked Yes16c525$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked Yes16c507$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes18c499.97$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.996523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe291…9806backed Yes15c499.54$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x846d…4ab2backed No77c468$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5372…5f61backed Yes23c468$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…28c7backed Yes12c466.9$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5661…ef17backed Yes16c405$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes12c395$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd22a…ac22backed No75c377$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd137…ceacbacked Yes19c340$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0be4…b548backed Yes15c326.6$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.431513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes11c326.19$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.893724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf57…588ebacked Yes19c325$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes9c302.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0de5…d01cbacked Yes16c293$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0acc…debabacked Yes26c293$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6142…367bbacked Yes12c286$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes6c285.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.361735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+71.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed Yes16c279$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e0…ad86backed Yes25c270$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes16c266$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.56560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+54.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7635…9ae0backed No78c264$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1502…be53backed Yes16c260$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90e2…7babbacked Yes23c260$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x217e…09debacked No77c260$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+381.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes11c258.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-51.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes11c256.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.517528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa88…6c88backed Yes18c246.11$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c14…821ebacked Yes18c238.89$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes11c216$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eac…fe52backed Yes10c215$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.411020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes18c207.2$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.362623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes9c200.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.111723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes11c197$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d03…ef8ebacked Yes25c196$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97f4…66e6backed Yes6c190.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes17c177.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.21922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes16c173.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.012839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes11c173.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.982951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33dc…a539backed Yes17c149$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes17c146.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.44498.2%4 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd12a…fb09backed Yes12c145.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes14c140.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.341729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.