Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97cd691b804fac9b04a67ba9b3c0f813b49b330059f8d2a9c0415da8ceb12e41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5cbe…04b4backed Yes | 18c | 1,519$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 18c | 1,145$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 1,126$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.29 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 21c | 1,042$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.14 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe291…9806backed Yes | 18c | 955.86$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 14c | 925.68$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.27 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed Yes | 18c | 868$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 12c | 786$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed Yes | 11c | 667$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed Yes | 11c | 660$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed Yes | 10c | 570$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked Yes | 18c | 564$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 18c | 551$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes | 18c | 534$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 20c | 430$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 11c | 423.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 12c | 420.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 410.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 381.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 13c | 376$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 14c | 347.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…aa1abacked Yes | 18c | 340$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 15c | 322.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 319.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…7ec6backed Yes | 18c | 310$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 19c | 298.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 294.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed Yes | 10c | 292$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 290.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 13c | 289.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 13c | 283.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…b548backed Yes | 12c | 247.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 14c | 237.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 15c | 237.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked Yes | 21c | 236.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 18c | 230.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 27c | 223.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 16c | 215$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed Yes | 10c | 177$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 11c | 166.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 10c | 147$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3d…c31abacked Yes | 14c | 138.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 14c | 134$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 14c | 121.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 15c | 106.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8150…cbb8backed Yes | 24c | 103.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b63…4b44backed Yes | 26c | 100.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…287fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08db…296fbacked Yes | 17c | 76.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 30c | 74.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c8…3ee8backed Yes | 20c | 73.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -6.5wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…ba97backed No | 75c | 66.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 60.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 80c | 55.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 21c | 55.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 79c | 48.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8baa…7781backed Yes | 24c | 41.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…c327backed No | 74c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x458d…5455backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +680.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 80c | 17.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Yes won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.