Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e7559e591b2e26807d62516c35d2065576ffb23a94d57db0bdce887767249d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 13c | 1,591$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe291…9806backed Yes | 18c | 962.7$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f5…260fbacked Yes | 19c | 773.44$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 14c | 732.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…5bb2backed Yes | 10c | 621.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 11c | 620.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 6c | 553.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 474.14$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…e5e8backed Yes | 13c | 437.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 436.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 13c | 432.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1591…dbbfbacked Yes | 19c | 402.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 4c | 399.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 13c | 388.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…bae4backed Yes | 7c | 387.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…b548backed Yes | 11c | 381.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 367.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 16c | 326.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 13c | 318.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…bb19backed Yes | 18c | 316.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 303$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 216.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 16c | 215$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…203abacked Yes | 11c | 214.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e31…a5f5backed Yes | 25c | 202.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…c327backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 11c | 147.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb0…73ebbacked Yes | 15c | 134.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6928…d7afbacked Yes | 15c | 130.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…3bb9backed Yes | 18c | 109.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 16c | 106.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47a…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 104.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 17c | 100.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…b759backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 20c | 96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 15c | 84.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08db…296fbacked Yes | 15c | 80.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebc…e384backed Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 80c | 51.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…47a3backed Yes | 25c | 48.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 75c | 28.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 76c | 18.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Yes won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.