Us Politics · resolved market
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 6 - April 12 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf81cd6548d52d0a66a5170fda5d93ec1dab2b25c728883182aab46689d2667ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 69c | 806$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes | 31c | 794$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed Yes | 31c | 786$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked No | 69c | 774$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…aa1abacked No | 80c | 754$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…7914backed No | 80c | 745$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes | 20c | 533$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 20c | 488$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 20c | 478$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 13c | 300.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 36c | 140$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 35.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7047…31b3backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 6 - April 12 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000?this page
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 6 - April 12 be between 16,500,000 and 17,000,000?No won
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 6 - April 12 be between 17,500,000 and 18,000,000?Yes won
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 6 - April 12 be less than 16,500,000?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.