Weather · resolved market
Will 70 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40b00c9253af4ddcf2d4d235540f802070d0bfcdf9dc4f9378454cb2765973c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,768$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,023$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 10c | 615.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 19c | 457$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb993…6e3abacked Yes | 21c | 443$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…4569backed No | 79c | 443$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 80c | 405$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked No | 80c | 392$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 19c | 358$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7eb…615bbacked Yes | 29c | 345.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked No | 80c | 344$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked Yes | 20c | 339$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Yes | 18c | 323.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 71c | 288.33$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed Yes | 20c | 269$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed Yes | 20c | 267$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…7359backed Yes | 20c | 261$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…d8cfbacked Yes | 16c | 171.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes | 7c | 170.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2d…25febacked No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…519bbacked Yes | 25c | 117.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 116$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…10babacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 13c | 113.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 78c | 100.48$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…c46ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…9cc6backed Yes | 25c | 97.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 56.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 47.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2d3ebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 71c | 18.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 70 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?this page
- Will 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?No won
- Will 130 to 149 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?No won
- Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?Yes won
- Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.