Weather · resolved market
Will 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23e4b8646aca051677e5dc5f08ced93f9d2190659d149aab514732231e615848
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23b9…6447backed No | 79c | 1,705$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…07e4backed Yes | 1c | 1,660$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked No | 78c | 1,526$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 1c | 1,146$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 21c | 866$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.86 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24a…fc69backed Yes | 21c | 839$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d2…39f0backed Yes | 22c | 549$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed Yes | 22c | 490$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 22c | 487$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…d8d0backed Yes | 23c | 461.42$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Yes | 7c | 439.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes | 5c | 363.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 13c | 231$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…c46ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 73c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?this page
- Will 130 to 149 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?No won
- Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?Yes won
- Will 70 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?No won
- Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.