Weather · resolved market
Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2a603e4164bc9b6014fae23809701e8b9a7d8a10e9cd5ae176387e720ef7c64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5565…106ebacked No | 2c | 4,973$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 2,978$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 2c | 2,661$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 2,343$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 43c | 2,115$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…c968backed No | 1c | 1,705$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 10c | 1,646$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.93 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bab…ad7cbacked No | 2c | 1,537$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked No | 11c | 1,294$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.34 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 1c | 1,187$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 2c | 1,044$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed Yes | 51c | 911$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 18c | 870.79$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.87 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…b18ebacked No | 13c | 690$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 9c | 684.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 561.16$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.37 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 56c | 460.24$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.8 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8ad4backed Yes | 51c | 436$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 30c | 415.57$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.14 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked No | 13c | 374$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 13c | 367$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…d8cfbacked No | 36c | 332.16$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked No | 49c | 310$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…5122backed No | 49c | 304$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked No | 49c | 297$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed No | 50c | 284$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed Yes | 50c | 278$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked No | 12c | 258.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed Yes | 50c | 251$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 50c | 245$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 202.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked No | 49c | 193$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…e8e9backed No | 49c | 171$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…5ed5backed No | 73c | 139$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…2238backed No | 11c | 136$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed No | 50c | 128$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 11c | 116$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 10c | 110.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 7cpaid | +350%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 16c | 101.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…e72fbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 95.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 24c | 82.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed No | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 58c | 69.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…3390backed No | 72c | 61.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2d…25febacked Yes | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 44c | 47.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 53c | 45.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…9cc6backed Yes | 47c | 44.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 35c | 39.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x758e…4916backed Yes | 26c | 38.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 45c | 32.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 52c | 29.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed Yes | 46c | 21.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 55c | 20.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…28a7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?this page
- Will 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?No won
- Will 130 to 149 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?No won
- Will 70 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?No won
- Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.