Weather · resolved market
Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa55445cd43f22576d83853ab4a7a22e791db1071b513370d0d07dae6e30b3a7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b8f…1b4fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,655$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 1.5%1 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…6e2ebacked Yes | 41c | 940$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfce9…a3debacked Yes | 3c | 701.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed No | 68c | 680$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde62…64f6backed Yes | 32c | 630$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Yes | 15c | 608.66$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 59c | 490$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes | 3c | 440.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 38c | 413.5$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.07 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed No | 61c | 410$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981e…d368backed No | 59c | 410$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…5ed5backed Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 22c | 264.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…8d45backed No | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4908…2792backed Yes | 10c | 199.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 31c | 161$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed No | 69c | 161$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 58c | 85.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 83.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed No | 74c | 80.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…3390backed Yes | 45c | 79.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 70.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8af…37e5backed Yes | 44c | 59.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 50c | 49.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +193%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x758e…4916backed No | 59c | 35.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…28a7backed Yes | 41c | 35.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 55c | 33.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 44c | 32.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed No | 63c | 16.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?this page
- Will 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?No won
- Will 130 to 149 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?No won
- Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?Yes won
- Will 70 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.