Movies · resolved market
Will "The Grinch" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1818744358aa3d59bf0a90ba43d38a992cac516fc3925fae21db860268c5e12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 10c | 2,600$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.99 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 69c | 887$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.97 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4582…7699backed No | 74c | 837$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked Yes | 31c | 789$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.59 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed No | 68c | 562$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.84 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…829dbacked Yes | 27c | 503$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…1bb5backed No | 73c | 503$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.81 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 69c | 447$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.57 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…b332backed Yes | 31c | 447$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 26c | 398$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.48 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 26c | 371$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed Yes | 32c | 303$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 73c | 269$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 27c | 269$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 32c | 268$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 25c | 229$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked No | 75c | 229$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed No | 79c | 212.73$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82e…5b63backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed No | 75c | 176$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 154.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked Yes | 25c | 148$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…e76cbacked Yes | 17c | 133$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 33c | 106.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 31c | 98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 86.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 33c | 79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…a978backed Yes | 26c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…5afabacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 69c | 17.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 70c | 15.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Grinch" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)this page
- Will "Eden" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.