Movies · resolved market
Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b244d5828fbfdd80613d8a7b446a3876cd68c3e8dc295c5a0bf2f137dda12b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed No | 71c | 1,394$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.74 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 29c | 1,261$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.31 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 35c | 957$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.05 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 71c | 902$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.1 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 75c | 858$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 25c | 772$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked No | 65c | 769$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.85 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 71c | 652$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.92 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 25c | 616$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 71c | 576$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.96 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 29c | 576$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.96 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked No | 75c | 508$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed No | 67c | 420$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.96 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed Yes | 33c | 403$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.01 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 29c | 340$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.4 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 72c | 324$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.28 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes | 28c | 320$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 29c | 312$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.52 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 23c | 299.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed Yes | 28c | 285$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…74dfbacked No | 7c | 263$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked No | 72c | 196$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.12 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked No | 65c | 166$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 41c | 134$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 49c | 127.53$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 45c | 98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 55c | 98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed No | 67c | 89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 29c | 71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 29c | 62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 41c | 29.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 54c | 25.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)this page
- Will "Eden" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "The Grinch" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.