World Politics · resolved market
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc49ecd32aa60f9f8ffc94ef1fc2911da5c79b1317744adc3258f050c90696e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 21c | 2,472$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.68 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 22c | 1,743$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed No | 23c | 1,243$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.89 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 78c | 1,200$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed No | 23c | 1,189$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda68…7ee2backed No | 25c | 918.68$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 78c | 909$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed Yes | 77c | 902$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.46 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a04…2310backed Yes | 77c | 897$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes | 78c | 834$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…5483backed Yes | 78c | 763.17$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.72 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x636c…ea28backed Yes | 77c | 634$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b72…beddbacked No | 18c | 460.35$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 427.82$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.84 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 19c | 422.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked No | 19c | 272$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked No | 19c | 242$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c34…ec8cbacked Yes | 79c | 240.26$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 11c | 201.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c62fbacked Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 79c | 199$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x13ae…2229backed Yes | 79c | 192.89$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 74c | 180.22$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 19c | 159.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 16c | 130.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b8…08e8backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 72cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 19c | 121$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 30c | 100.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03aa…5821backed No | 26c | 100.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 19c | 99.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 78c | 90.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 26c | 90.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0169…0096backed Yes | 79c | 88.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 23c | 74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes | 78c | 68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +87%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff4f…1374backed Yes | 73c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…c507backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…ec11backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4913…6931backed No | 39c | 60.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…7521backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cc…ec40backed Yes | 76c | 59.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 54.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…aae2backed Yes | 77c | 51.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…2cdbbacked Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…6c48backed Yes | 73c | 50.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked Yes | 77c | 44.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…5cdbbacked No | 24c | 44.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 75c | 33.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…3dc1backed Yes | 77c | 32.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4513…5a38backed Yes | 40c | 31.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…2e03backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed Yes | 77c | 28.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…4776backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…80f4backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49a2…f1efbacked Yes | 78c | 23.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd3…f7d3backed Yes | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Yes | 79c | 20.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc261…4058backed Yes | 78c | 20.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b7…d41bbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections?this page
- Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.