World Politics · resolved market
Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7963ee082c656c981d0518dfcd5e2884d9e7d0be176edf65f4ac79551a287b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 21c | 5,556$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.7 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b72…beddbacked Yes | 17c | 2,802$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4826…d5c3backed No | 78c | 2,800$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb1…5e96backed No | 79c | 1,101$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…47e9backed No | 75c | 896.9$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.1 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 79c | 855.31$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.28 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…91c5backed Yes | 25c | 813.34$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 80c | 691$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.2 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4f…1374backed Yes | 4c | 545$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…a317backed Yes | 13c | 533.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…d54ebacked No | 78c | 455.13$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…ebbfbacked Yes | 19c | 372.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 78c | 339.78$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 22c | 299.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x731d…fd90backed Yes | 20c | 295.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 292.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 14c | 190$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…6663backed Yes | 18c | 164.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0d…4c33backed Yes | 17c | 145.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3708…5951backed Yes | 18c | 136.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…9fbdbacked No | 78c | 126.54$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2543…b6f4backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5e…f157backed No | 78c | 116.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 68cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed No | 75c | 116.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…b4d9backed Yes | 15c | 104.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dcc…e266backed Yes | 19c | 104.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a9…fdb6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9035…1e37backed Yes | 18c | 99.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e78…ddecbacked No | 78c | 88.73$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf124…9d72backed No | 78c | 61.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 32c | 42.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f3…5d6cbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c89…757bbacked No | 79c | 33.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked No | 78c | 32.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 77c | 32.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked No | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c62…215bbacked No | 79c | 19.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 77c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections?this page
- Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.