World Politics · resolved market
Will 'Deadline' - BlackPink debut week album sales be less than 300k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e59a5124bb232e8d4f68f5c60371e6d1f8b06afdbd55aa87ff998f7ce617b97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,066 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8d4…3ffabacked No | 5c | 3,900$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed No | 19c | 1,484$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked No | 25c | 1,439$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27a…cb02backed Yes | 26c | 1,415$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +285.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…e5c4backed Yes | 53c | 1,298$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…4a94backed No | 35c | 1,074$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked Yes | 65c | 990$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +90%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 19c | 856$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…7111backed No | 35c | 815$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed Yes | 70c | 798$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 15c | 762$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…ad32backed No | 30c | 708$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed No | 18c | 684$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed No | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 18c | 573$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 65c | 567$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 77c | 535$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed No | 23c | 535$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked No | 18c | 460$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed No | 36c | 437$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked Yes | 64c | 437$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed No | 18c | 382$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed No | 19c | 353$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed No | 18c | 338$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 8c | 322.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked No | 15c | 263$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 38c | 261.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 65c | 248$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 19c | 192$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f4…d6debacked No | 18c | 169$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 59c | 150$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked No | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 82.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 82.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes | 65c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes | 65c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 80c | 20.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f72backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Deadline' - BlackPink debut week album sales be less than 300k?this page
- Will 'Deadline' - BlackPink debut week album sales be at least 1.5m?No won
- Will 'Deadline' - BlackPink debut week album sales be between 1.1m and 1.3m?No won
- Will 'Deadline' - BlackPink debut week album sales be between 1.3m and 1.5m?No won
- Will 'Deadline' - BlackPink debut week album sales be between 300k and 500k?No won
- Will 'Deadline' - BlackPink debut week album sales be between 900k and 1.1m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.