TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,311
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,385

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,311 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes12c2,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007526.7%20 W · 55 L+9.2wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+63.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0e4d…4b3fbacked Yes28c2,000$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.711010%1 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick43cpaid-87.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes17c1,937$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.1443243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes23c1,920$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.45630.4%17 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd566…3e2dbacked Yes2c1,332$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.263315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes21c1,309$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.2754934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ae5…bb7ebacked Yes20c1,126$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.72520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1ac…d8c5backed Yes23c851$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.73560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed No77c845$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.351145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-32.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed No77c807$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.611050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed Yes23c801$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.231442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fee…ed5ebacked Yes5c778.74$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.941457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52fb…8649backed Yes22c741.49$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.18333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d19…f2b8backed Yes27c740.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked Yes37c697$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.891030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c9a…f183backed No63c697$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.89850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+72.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes22c614.39$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.474916.3%8 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes20c606.02$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5328430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135a…c733backed Yes32c596.24$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.43475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+56.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes23c586.1$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.6614632.2%47 W · 99 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcecd…c518backed Yes32c564.45$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.842835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ef…8c5abacked Yes24c532.25$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No78c499.97$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.297761%47 W · 30 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfb8…d90abacked Yes21c497.01$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.751020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee82…f011backed Yes27c487.41$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.51741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd177…54c1backed Yes2c487.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.47450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x264c…e4b1backed Yes21c473.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked No69c454.81$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.922725.1%57 W · 170 L+0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75c0…1484backed Yes25c451.42$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.07666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+50.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes20c447$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.612332.5%40 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5947…9713backed Yes49c408.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe759…e7cabacked No73c400$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1086759.7%40 W · 27 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes16c399.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6416746.1%77 W · 90 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes21c391.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3146330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No80c360$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe6…a614backed Yes21c353.76$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c8…87d1backed Yes24c345.98$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed No75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754650%23 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf24f…cfb7backed Yes13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392722.2%6 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+152.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-31.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6c4…4126backed Yes15c300$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.13955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbedd…58a4backed Yes19c295.19$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.141855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+53.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes17c286.31$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.395831%18 W · 40 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+35.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No79c251.13$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4432255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked Yes24c249.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605022%11 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddaa…e514backed Yes20c244.11$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+53%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c4…fdbbbacked Yes25c244$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407436.5%27 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5559…058dbacked Yes20c199.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+84.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c8a…1c45backed Yes31c162.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed Yes17c157.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.412045%9 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+27.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes20c151.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.241,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No75c144$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363873.7%28 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes12c126$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1231534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked No80c122.43$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.49560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked Yes18c120.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.752040%8 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No80c111.69$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.410261.8%63 W · 39 L+13.2wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes25c108.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.146835.3%24 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed Yes11c108.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.971323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick11cpaid+52%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc55…3feabacked Yes21c106.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc492…11c1backed Yes20c105.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.78540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfff0…e4a8backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.11435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71a8…fb19backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ff7…87a4backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06db…5244backed No75c99.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ed…04cbbacked Yes26c99.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd78…ae3abacked Yes19c94.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2919…8006backed Yes27c93.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…035abacked Yes12c92.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.091631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No76c82.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6639414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x7efb…68a1backed Yes19c79.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.182240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3560…11f0backed Yes27c76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.45per pick40cpaid+126.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No70c75$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7216343.6%71 W · 92 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c72.11$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9715356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff0a…265bbacked Yes25c69.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+115.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2918…548dbacked Yes39c62.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x015b…556dbacked Yes26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x497d…944cbacked Yes19c57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.833423.5%8 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5864…76b9backed Yes18c55.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked No73c54.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.034858.3%28 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4463…3adcbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+49.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510634.9%37 W · 69 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.515446.8%72 W · 82 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe236…cfcdbacked Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0748…103bbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135745.6%26 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f07…99f9backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-62.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbc17…c01cbacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No73c43.76$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7410652.8%56 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No76c41.25$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.065232.7%17 W · 35 L-7.0wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8e48…6457backed Yes32c40.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db3…547dbacked No78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-74.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df8…6dd8backed No75c33.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.331127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-49.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83c6…08b3backed Yes33c32.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed No69c31.65$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.664663%29 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x060a…fa8fbacked No75c28.14$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.03742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb333…e295backed No77c20.78$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.784643.5%20 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked No80c18.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.744641.3%19 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No74c17.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6625337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No73c16.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.545062%31 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.