TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Tisza win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$654,661
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$639,228

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $654,661 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9968…6e51backed Yes5c8,586$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5ae6…a5febacked Yes4c6,740$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdba…4d4cbacked Yes6c5,023$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x639d…76ddbacked Yes4c4,370$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58ba…dc64backed Yes9c4,203$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.27425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+171.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a95…2a18backed Yes9c3,385$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8f8…e41abacked Yes8c3,380$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa866…66d2backed Yes5c3,146$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe50a…6717backed Yes3c3,049$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b1…79e4backed Yes7c2,972$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f77…dd33backed Yes5c2,883$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ddd…cf7abacked Yes5c2,789$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1c2…af0cbacked Yes7c2,643$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…658cbacked Yes9c2,639$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…087bbacked Yes6c2,638$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d54…56ecbacked Yes4c2,552$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc735…64b4backed Yes9c2,487$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd171…fba5backed Yes9c2,456$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfc3…0d86backed Yes5c2,455$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbab…2234backed Yes8c2,288$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd691…0964backed Yes4c2,263$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74a9…e623backed Yes5c2,177$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e6f…d42cbacked Yes5c2,163$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62ac…5bc0backed Yes9c2,120$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f90…c40cbacked Yes9c2,100$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeff5…b171backed Yes6c2,084$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c5…4f2bbacked Yes6c2,062$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1281…ab7bbacked Yes9c2,062$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc32…054ebacked Yes6c2,056$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c4…59b1backed Yes5c1,966$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aaf…5417backed Yes6c1,953$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea85…75bcbacked Yes9c1,886$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+390.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb46…332ebacked Yes6c1,863$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c0…19debacked Yes6c1,848$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x663b…b5f2backed Yes5c1,833$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e81…3decbacked Yes4c1,810$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eac…1dd8backed Yes5c1,793$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc191…b3e6backed Yes6c1,782$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.21425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+174.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17ae…e3b7backed Yes6c1,743$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d9b…e95ebacked Yes6c1,728$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x492a…cd78backed Yes4c1,721$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd845…1ce2backed Yes6c1,698$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd9f…df54backed Yes4c1,674$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e0b…7e3bbacked Yes4c1,668$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb8bf…8f83backed Yes6c1,645$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a3b…fdb7backed Yes9c1,639$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa5d…7accbacked Yes9c1,621$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf145…8fdabacked Yes4c1,614$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2013…f08cbacked Yes4c1,603$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66d7…ac65backed Yes9c1,566$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5736…1d4ebacked Yes9c1,549$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ec…7c5abacked Yes6c1,548$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b7…3045backed Yes6c1,529$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x07a3…44a4backed Yes5c1,522$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad59…345dbacked Yes3c1,499$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf28a…e3dcbacked Yes10c1,497$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39e4…2cfbbacked Yes5c1,490$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8291…fb45backed Yes6c1,479$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.66425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+135.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,468$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.161,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc854…138cbacked Yes3c1,467$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x196d…1e02backed Yes6c1,450$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb5…91b6backed Yes7c1,445$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.37520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes5c1,430$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.524916.3%8 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe40d…e907backed Yes5c1,412$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85fe…4d47backed Yes4c1,410$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa4e…dfb3backed Yes4c1,388$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcbb2…e58cbacked Yes6c1,381$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc56a…9de7backed Yes5c1,377$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf045…b217backed Yes6c1,333$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e5…1ab3backed Yes6c1,324$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb374…13b4backed Yes6c1,310$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a4c…a1c0backed Yes4c1,285$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dbb…cb44backed Yes9c1,283$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a9a…308cbacked Yes4c1,259$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8a0…580ebacked Yes9c1,238$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03cf…803dbacked Yes5c1,227$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc0…0693backed Yes4c1,225$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c51…d160backed Yes5c1,215$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c1…9da9backed Yes6c1,214$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4d7…9fcfbacked Yes6c1,181$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c7b…716ebacked Yes6c1,172$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc925…8dbdbacked Yes9c1,170$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbb3a…4c2dbacked Yes6c1,169$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ca7…1912backed Yes3c1,161$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b1…9130backed Yes5c1,159$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceb7…4bccbacked Yes6c1,155$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c0f…3b2abacked Yes6c1,154$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2bd…f29dbacked Yes5c1,145$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc461…479dbacked Yes4c1,139$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3888…f890backed Yes4c1,130$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf434…7552backed Yes7c1,129$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x561b…984ebacked Yes9c1,128$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5180…23dbbacked Yes4c1,115$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b5f…b3e4backed Yes5c1,108$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b1…9efdbacked Yes6c1,102$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x09d2…6895backed Yes4c1,100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28e5…267dbacked Yes4c1,094$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7a…ee60backed Yes7c1,092$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ca…c87ebacked Yes6c1,080$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1cb…10eebacked Yes9c1,077$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.