TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$240,085
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$235,254

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,085 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf28a…e3dcbacked Yes6c6,834$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.1450%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x784f…09d8backed Yes3c6,629$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b5c…1151backed Yes6c2,849$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc38…f623backed Yes4c2,799$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b1…158abacked Yes3c2,711$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe269…429dbacked Yes3c2,278$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13ff…6ec1backed Yes3c2,202$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecc5…41bfbacked Yes4c2,081$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567d…a00bbacked Yes3c2,025$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfe…78d4backed Yes6c1,961$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee7…dfa3backed Yes6c1,853$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ad4…bc2ebacked Yes3c1,645$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab02…0ab4backed Yes3c1,473$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b33…eb04backed Yes3c1,395$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd475…438fbacked Yes3c1,350$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1cf…db68backed Yes3c1,343$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71e0…b633backed Yes3c1,339$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7319…38adbacked Yes4c1,338$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dd1…48f2backed Yes3c1,302$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aee…012bbacked Yes3c1,296$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6222…b18ebacked Yes3c1,251$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb8…0474backed Yes3c1,239$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe8d…9ac2backed Yes3c1,232$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb129…e850backed Yes9c1,230$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11580%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a6…c250backed Yes3c1,189$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48af…6f5fbacked Yes6c1,182$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-79.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c3…6271backed Yes3c1,182$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeff5…b171backed Yes3c1,180$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb46d…d63abacked Yes3c1,177$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46b…da2abacked Yes3c1,161$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84a1…364bbacked Yes3c1,156$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8079…b366backed Yes3c1,140$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c78…e0f8backed Yes3c1,135$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c7f…f8b1backed Yes4c1,119$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b18…7b40backed Yes3c1,087$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4234…4f6fbacked Yes3c1,076$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a0c…b74abacked Yes3c1,055$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd4c…83efbacked Yes3c1,018$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb211…2e2ebacked Yes3c1,016$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c65…942cbacked Yes3c958$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf27…7c14backed Yes3c953$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d0e…07bcbacked Yes4c952$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes3c947.29$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.424916.3%8 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf75…949abacked Yes3c911$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc0d…2f05backed Yes3c890$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x659f…cbf8backed Yes3c862$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf13…728ebacked Yes3c799$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x465e…9692backed Yes3c792$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53b6…970abacked Yes3c789$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe188…2e71backed Yes3c774$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c0…6a4fbacked Yes3c768$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaef4…38e2backed Yes3c752$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f47…cd9ebacked Yes3c746$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc8…74f2backed Yes4c722$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba10…0f67backed Yes4c712$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bf…1737backed Yes3c669.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b7…1d90backed Yes5c660$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc373…42d0backed Yes3c640$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4491…3c65backed Yes5c629$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee6e…c954backed Yes3c620$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7409…e7f3backed Yes5c610$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x915e…b760backed Yes3c604$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa58…1c9bbacked Yes5c579$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc95d…12b7backed Yes3c577$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x396c…6ab0backed Yes3c569$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+449.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b07…6a8abacked Yes7c559.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40110%0 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc501…4857backed Yes5c558$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x711e…cdf6backed Yes3c553$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb235…5d12backed Yes3c548$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc853…9d37backed Yes6c540.09$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.943324.2%8 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-45.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b80…481abacked Yes3c536$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8a3…a4a8backed Yes3c529$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0d9…e116backed Yes2c519$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x436f…4e2dbacked Yes3c512$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ac…37c8backed Yes3c499$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e33…0be2backed Yes3c495$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6110…9a65backed Yes3c494$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bbe…4aedbacked Yes2c485$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00e1…0ed2backed Yes3c481$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a01…c28dbacked Yes2c474$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes5c473.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.341344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68e…9d30backed Yes3c447$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87f6…2335backed Yes3c442$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7488…a325backed Yes4c438$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf668…b25abacked Yes2c438$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f0…6c9abacked Yes3c430$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41dc…a070backed Yes2c421$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a9…ec02backed Yes3c418$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes3c410.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4892.2%2 W · 87 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-80.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e42…0fdfbacked Yes4c387.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ad…42eebacked Yes3c380$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d3a…28c2backed Yes3c377$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5044…eb3dbacked Yes3c366$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes3c363.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.161664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ca6…3dcfbacked Yes3c361$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe68…4cbdbacked Yes3c349$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69d0…7adfbacked Yes3c339$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf212…f64cbacked Yes3c339$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614b…66a7backed Yes3c324$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes5c310.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.264721.3%10 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.