World Politics · resolved market
Will Tisza win 90–99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67ca01f75ad56b885aedae60d2a28c4569a69cf4e5814c356a95be28fb47678d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6539…c379backed Yes | 11c | 2,007$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf28a…e3dcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,659$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed Yes | 14c | 1,226$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.31per pick | 32cpaid | +173.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,200$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,048$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 928.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked Yes | 8c | 919.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 45cpaid | -87%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 8c | 802.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 14c | 708.85$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…6f5fbacked Yes | 13c | 688.31$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 8c | 599.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…bb7ebacked Yes | 12c | 597$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed Yes | 11c | 540.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 9c | 499.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 14c | 492$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 9c | 397.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 364.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 10c | 278.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97a…abdcbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…5cffbacked Yes | 8c | 249.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e42…0fdfbacked Yes | 9c | 244.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 11c | 232$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9169…e2dabacked Yes | 23c | 217.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 216.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 76c | 214.46$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 9c | 208.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…af7abacked Yes | 12c | 206.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcecd…c518backed Yes | 16c | 194.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7db…d69cbacked Yes | 8c | 186.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 14c | 184$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…d90abacked Yes | 16c | 183.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 6c | 176.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 14c | 165$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 155.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 135.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2919…8006backed Yes | 9c | 124.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 111$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes | 11c | 100.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa1…2930backed Yes | 20c | 60.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd691…24adbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…6ce0backed No | 77c | 32.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tisza win 90–99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?this page
- Will Tisza win 100–109 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Tisza win 110–119 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?Yes won
- Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Tisza win 80–89 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Tisza win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.