TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Tisza win 80–89 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$421,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$415,728

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $421,901 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf28a…e3dcbacked Yes7c5,534$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.0350%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68cf…745dbacked Yes5c5,478$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb124…2da8backed Yes5c3,438$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8a0…580ebacked Yes8c2,979$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.3840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x258b…fcf7backed Yes10c2,954$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95a5…fc3cbacked Yes10c2,796$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2831…bf88backed Yes8c2,584$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12a7…6502backed Yes6c2,452$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x539e…70aebacked Yes5c2,375$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a9…ec02backed Yes4c2,358$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904a…b711backed Yes6c2,335$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab58…42e0backed Yes7c2,265$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad87…6e57backed Yes4c2,166$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7556…fd1ebacked Yes5c2,153$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0985…f3f8backed Yes5c2,102$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb8…c40abacked Yes7c2,098$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4208…2815backed Yes6c2,094$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x946a…2e54backed Yes6c2,055$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf096…851dbacked Yes5c2,004$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9c0…7060backed Yes6c1,952$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+233.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fd…79a1backed Yes9c1,924$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e79…c0f1backed Yes4c1,850$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb0…25c4backed Yes4c1,804$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2524…813abacked Yes6c1,748$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca54…8f1fbacked Yes6c1,668$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa245…d248backed Yes5c1,667$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7885…3181backed Yes5c1,663$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9dd…8e7cbacked Yes9c1,654$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c9…0407backed Yes5c1,621$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa62b…77d3backed Yes8c1,579$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d0e…07bcbacked Yes5c1,557$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b97…1a9fbacked Yes5c1,554$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d4…0f99backed Yes8c1,547$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2938…6c38backed Yes5c1,546$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe63c…506fbacked Yes8c1,533$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb59a…b7c6backed Yes4c1,524$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7747…6eadbacked Yes5c1,502$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac8e…666fbacked Yes6c1,495$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65cd…9096backed Yes5c1,495$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aaa…a662backed Yes5c1,486$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe272…f725backed Yes7c1,483$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58bf…1c21backed Yes5c1,481$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74b1…8dfabacked Yes6c1,476$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.51333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a86…7211backed Yes9c1,456$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x98c0…80e0backed Yes5c1,410$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a5…ab68backed Yes6c1,384$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceff…c39cbacked Yes9c1,379$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8731…1b84backed Yes4c1,360$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2017…968cbacked Yes6c1,338$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc501…4857backed Yes8c1,330$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc46…515bbacked Yes5c1,323$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd44a…d611backed Yes9c1,323$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc846…e9c7backed Yes7c1,307$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bc3…4a1abacked Yes6c1,292$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb129…e850backed Yes12c1,253$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15580%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…c6ecbacked Yes5c1,235$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa44e…ae21backed Yes6c1,220$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d11…1d69backed Yes5c1,201$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fb2…e5dfbacked Yes8c1,185$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58ba…dc64backed Yes6c1,166$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.62425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+171.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d87…6e1fbacked Yes6c1,097$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x713b…539dbacked Yes5c1,086$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a8…45b7backed Yes6c1,081$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c99…8260backed Yes6c1,080$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa58…1c9bbacked Yes9c1,069$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68e…9d30backed Yes5c1,031$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0d9…e116backed Yes4c1,028$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd475…438fbacked Yes5c1,015$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d54…b00dbacked Yes6c997$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ea…af57backed Yes7c997$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd897…dff3backed Yes6c984$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e03…d9e0backed Yes4c968$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c4b…138bbacked Yes6c968$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda02…304fbacked Yes5c960$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f88…f8f7backed Yes5c954$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf48…4fd2backed Yes5c940$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60e8…57e8backed Yes6c934$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ff…af5abacked Yes5c930$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x219c…212fbacked Yes5c891$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cdf…d964backed Yes4c891$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3c1…2337backed Yes5c888$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4704…8790backed Yes5c882$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c4a…af57backed Yes5c880$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71e0…b633backed Yes5c865$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabd0…3dcabacked Yes5c847$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72c8…6dbfbacked Yes7c831$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec8…9c7abacked Yes8c827$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb8f8…e41abacked Yes6c826$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf75c…3c6dbacked Yes4c811$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe861…e822backed Yes5c790$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x153a…93a4backed Yes4c784$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9da…8a04backed Yes6c780$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2811…5965backed Yes5c777.9$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcec…e307backed Yes5c747$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89c7…addebacked Yes5c747$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48af…6f5fbacked Yes9c741.54$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-79.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8197…d4ecbacked Yes5c739$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x719c…2f3dbacked Yes5c729$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf933…b0bfbacked Yes5c726$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac34…7833backed Yes5c712$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.