World Politics · resolved market
Will Tisza win 110–119 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed647287b04a0f8f755f22dcba850b998896c43f98c322b7dac92928617f05cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e4d…4b3fbacked Yes | 12c | 7,198$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes | 14c | 2,922$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…9fa3backed Yes | 12c | 2,574$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 18c | 2,104$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.82 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 17c | 1,184$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 15c | 809.4$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…bb7ebacked Yes | 18c | 699.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 13c | 656.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked Yes | 14c | 617$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc351…08f7backed Yes | 14c | 609$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 14c | 574.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 13c | 553.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…3feabacked Yes | 12c | 526.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 8c | 525.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 518.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…87d1backed Yes | 16c | 503.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 17c | 429.46$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 13c | 425.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 16c | 350.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…e4b1backed Yes | 20c | 347.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbedd…58a4backed Yes | 13c | 341.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…035abacked Yes | 13c | 333.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea1…c38ebacked Yes | 17c | 328.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…5cffbacked Yes | 19c | 318.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 14c | 297.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…d90abacked Yes | 22c | 272.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 17c | 264$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 79c | 258.78$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…553ebacked Yes | 19c | 257.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee82…f011backed Yes | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…8c5abacked Yes | 18c | 244.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 80c | 212$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34d…b5c3backed Yes | 16c | 210$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d00…b0c2backed Yes | 23c | 173.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 14c | 159.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…d27cbacked Yes | 12c | 154.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 80c | 151.28$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd566…3e2dbacked Yes | 16c | 149.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…548dbacked Yes | 22c | 135.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 11c | 131$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97a…abdcbacked Yes | 12c | 126.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 16c | 112$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc492…11c1backed Yes | 18c | 111.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 17c | 111$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed Yes | 18c | 104.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d2…70a2backed Yes | 15c | 99.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…3716backed Yes | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd78…ae3abacked Yes | 21c | 90.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked Yes | 18c | 85.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…a468backed Yes | 17c | 77.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…944cbacked Yes | 15c | 72.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…2158backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8a…1c45backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…fb26backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed Yes | 17c | 61.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…f823backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…05e7backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…d288backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 80c | 46.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 79c | 41.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe24…10fbbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Yes | 49c | 23.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tisza win 110–119 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?this page
- Will Tisza win 100–109 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?Yes won
- Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Tisza win 80–89 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Tisza win 90–99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Tisza win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.