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Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in November 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,033
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,725

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,033 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeb6b…943abacked Yes30c11,205$3,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,393.983836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes5c1,959$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1685216.4%140 W · 712 L+24.7wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes18c1,881$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.676322.2%14 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed No45c1,515$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.29022.2%20 W · 70 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,412$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.922,1813.9%85 W · 2,096 L+4.7wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes32c1,214$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.3562713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes30c1,094$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.222,57613.2%339 W · 2,237 L+4.4wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes2c1,024$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207930.4%24 W · 55 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes15c900$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1352859.1%26 W · 259 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes8c877.02$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.83721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c761.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1999619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes15c758.83$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.997912.7%10 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba53…e794backed Yes54c730.6$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes50c693.94$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.382958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a19…81b9backed Yes59c669.01$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.44219%8 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes10c627.17$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6466222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5369…aac5backed Yes13c600.37$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+72.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes26c523.4$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.79012.2%11 W · 79 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0899…2bc6backed No68c500.92$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.733318.2%6 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-47.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b3c…c600backed Yes16c488.46$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes12c469.1$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.214413.6%6 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes18c468.67$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8213014.6%19 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes25c465.45$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.94320.9%9 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes6c441.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.319816.3%16 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No53c426.8$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.5610857.4%62 W · 46 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed Yes52c400.25$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.696627.3%18 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked Yes21c400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845068%34 W · 16 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes21c399.97$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.9973615.2%112 W · 624 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes6c398.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.852815%14 W · 267 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea3…9067backed Yes6c380.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+36.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed Yes48c366$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed No54c360$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed Yes5c357$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c10…ed7dbacked No79c346.22$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes4c336.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.651233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes11c335.91$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3512213.9%17 W · 105 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed No33c332$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc426…69d5backed Yes63c315.73$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-86.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No52c309$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.942100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+181.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86f7…6c8abacked Yes62c306.1$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c60…9d17backed Yes61c296.8$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.44425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+25%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes5c285.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.835045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3b…3222backed Yes64c265.55$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+56.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes73c263.84$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.133666.7%24 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked Yes64c259.24$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.129355.9%52 W · 41 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed Yes9c251$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed Yes36c241$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes19c234.72$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.21435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+76%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No68c223.64$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4131565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe372…e651backed Yes7c223.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.343420.6%7 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11c1…7912backed Yes14c221.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed Yes67c221$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.07333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+75.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed Yes67c220$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes8c216.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.321216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+53.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed No51c210.6$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes16c200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0482711%91 W · 736 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes21c199.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.423819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd898…aaf1backed Yes14c199.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.92439.3%4 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked No69c192$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…c913backed No15c192$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.972100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+346.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5829…e46bbacked Yes32c183$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…d63bbacked Yes6c180.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.012250%11 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes39c179.47$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.798924.7%22 W · 67 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-57.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes18c177.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0351018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes16c170.22$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.928312%10 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes62c161.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006038.3%23 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes54c160.38$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6658422.1%129 W · 455 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-41.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb179…8cf4backed Yes8c157.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6205%1 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-86.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4657…00d6backed No64c154$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick35cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1606…0ba6backed Yes62c153$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8410021%21 W · 79 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa37b…1b84backed Yes12c151.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.691711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-73.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a10…fbe0backed No37c151$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+173.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes57c150$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.73966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c6f…f078backed Yes21c146.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes40c146$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bfe…8d1dbacked Yes12c138.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes37c136.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed No60c134$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aad…72b7backed Yes76c132.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed Yes45c131$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f55…73b6backed Yes67c130.33$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.751118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-67.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde72…1c1bbacked Yes9c129.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111225%3 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+149.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed Yes67c123.32$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.442060%12 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No64c123$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5126167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes9c122$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes40c119.12$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.152619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes29c117.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.46016.7%10 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes26c115.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1359225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed Yes10c110$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…d14ebacked Yes36c107.72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes71c106.66$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.199241.3%38 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe349…7b7cbacked Yes16c103.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…0b03backed Yes63c97.3$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd091…e046backed No19c93$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+413%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes40c89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1889910.2%92 W · 807 L-3.9wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed No64c88$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c9f…fd4dbacked Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes14c72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed No55c71$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x293b…09a9backed No43c69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+62.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.