TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in November 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,705
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,071

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,705 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c7,166$76 inLost-$75.612,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes13c482.6$65 inLost-$64.552,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes13c344.7$45 inLost-$454320.9%9 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes9c301.62$28 inLost-$28.1562713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes15c299.98$44 inLost-$4473215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcdb…9362backed Yes8c251.18$20 inLost-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f6c…59d8backed Yes12c214.24$26 inLost-$25.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes6c213.87$13 inLost-$13.111216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+53.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes23c200$46 inLost-$45.923819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes9c200$19 inLost-$18.61347.5%10 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63bf…739ebacked Yes27c185.91$50 inLost-$501118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-71.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed Yes25c159$40 inLost-$40.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2166…72fcbacked Yes32c154.22$50 inLost-$501816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-58.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed No75c101$75 inWon+$25.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes25c86$22 inLost-$21.8430%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cfb…fac1backed Yes31c71.82$22 inLost-$22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked No75c68$51 inWon+$17.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked No75c67$50 inWon+$17.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+50.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6057…9a52backed No76c50$38 inWon+$121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c08…8bacbacked Yes24c50$12 inLost-$12130%0 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No77c43.88$34 inWon+$10.0226167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2209…aa48backed Yes37c30$11 inLost-$11.0430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcb1…c4e8backed No75c24$18 inWon+$6.12100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+300.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.