TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in November 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,753

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,983 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4a19…81b9backed Yes42c1,721$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.994219%8 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes55c1,625$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.613721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes23c1,543$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.7162713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes61c1,445$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.699241.3%38 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes69c1,152$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.9623819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No2c1,121$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.17930.4%24 W · 55 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes5c1,103$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.579816.3%16 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes62c939.67$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.316322.2%14 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No63c768.43$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.858924.7%22 W · 67 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-57.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes35c766.28$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.137912.7%10 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes20c698.84$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.374413.6%6 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes50c608.64$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.542958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5369…aac5backed Yes14c478.03$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.681723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+72.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No67c471.79$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.02633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick71cpaid-52.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x70be…2c90backed Yes54c443.72$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.144030%12 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No42c434.22$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.9131565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes21c378.3$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.5412213.9%17 W · 105 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe372…e651backed Yes79c376.75$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.083420.6%7 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6499…05d2backed No71c360$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked Yes51c346.14$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.569355.9%52 W · 41 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes57c328.41$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.6215911.9%19 W · 140 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-35.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ce…83d5backed Yes43c326.88$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.625520%11 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes46c315.17$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.4513014.6%19 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes58c301.9$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.559022.2%20 W · 70 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes19c300$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24473215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a18…7a20backed Yes69c287.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.77850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82cf…0998backed Yes14c284.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.611947.4%9 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.21per pick27cpaid+81.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes11c266.87$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.591216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+53.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f85…e5a3backed No70c260$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82a5…2c0abacked Yes50c257.16$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.14540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee4…fa88backed No53c247.55$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.9650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45dd…5632backed No6c246.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes23c217.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.414320.9%9 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd83a…3609backed Yes58c215.1$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.98742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac2d…09bcbacked Yes60c214.89$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.72728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes10c210.91$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.913267.1%23 W · 303 L-0.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2911…fed6backed No77c209.33$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9322…01e3backed Yes29c201$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.11425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes11c200.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.041435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+76%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes19c200$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.4982711%91 W · 736 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No73c195.43$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9810857.4%62 W · 46 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Yes38c195.24$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.443836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc1…d40bbacked No71c190$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd502…4974backed No69c182$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.82520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-74.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes22c180.7$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.1357222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1606…0ba6backed Yes41c179.66$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.8310021%21 W · 79 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed Yes30c176$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+230%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee29…d1f4backed No78c169.75$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes23c169.4$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.47238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-62.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes34c162.73$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5152619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed Yes29c159$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.21450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes29c154.52$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.5484616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x293b…09a9backed Yes39c150.89$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+62.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes42c150$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.238010%38 W · 342 L+0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No28c149.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.42416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-61%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes17c149.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.982859.1%26 W · 259 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes72c138.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4616621.7%36 W · 130 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d15…c59cbacked Yes22c136.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.651533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+97.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No61c128$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes12c127.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5379735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked No71c125.94$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-46.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x814c…d63bbacked Yes36c119.57$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.162250%11 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes51c117.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.295543.6%24 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes56c115.36$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2659225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5286…025cbacked Yes43c115.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.33508%4 W · 46 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85bc…c23fbacked Yes44c114.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.19825%2 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+54.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes43c112.82$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.872,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes30c111.62$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.1334427%93 W · 251 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed No79c104.54$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.112060%12 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f2…d8efbacked No61c104.23$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.75666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb292…5c5ebacked No79c102.22$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cfb…fac1backed Yes25c101.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.07333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No69c101$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9626167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851625%4 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…7afabacked Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+206.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d52…f88abacked No77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63a8…8f00backed Yes21c95.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.24812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e35…384fbacked Yes29c93.88$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+247.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes30c84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb76d…08d1backed No64c81.03$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes24c78.79$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9151018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes31c76$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+218.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eb3…9adebacked No69c72.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7cc2…40d7backed Yes35c71.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc747…becfbacked Yes73c68.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No77c65.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5041230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c9f…fd4dbacked Yes24c63.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked No61c61$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5497…8ac9backed Yes54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.63215.6%5 W · 27 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-61.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcbd…261bbacked Yes42c59.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.64933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2635…41aebacked No28c57.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.881010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-80%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes31c57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+50.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a00…d9f7backed Yes55c56.59$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.65223.1%12 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22ec…4477backed Yes35c56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4be…58f2backed Yes52c54.09$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.885317%9 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-48.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes62c54$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.758915.7%14 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x979f…4e13backed Yes67c51.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.983141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed No61c51$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb7d…d6d6backed No70c50.11$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e1…d9c1backed Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+218.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.