TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

D4vd arrested by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,099
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,358

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,099 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5207…686bbacked Yes11c4,741$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes9c2,919$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.73300%0 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c1,683$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.463228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c8…e7acbacked No77c1,618$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.93633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-50.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes11c1,581$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57aa…04c5backed Yes7c1,056$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes11c744.25$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c643.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.84629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c632.11$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.95378.1%3 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed Yes20c418$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked No79c414$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.94683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+45.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x061b…1cf6backed Yes5c379.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes4c375$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-84.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed Yes23c364$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.72425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-68.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes28c349.8$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.223540%14 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes12c345.81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.692055%11 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cbc…5196backed Yes3c325.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-75.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7534…d51bbacked Yes27c315$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.05450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbf…a827backed No69c302.84$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed No80c290$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes9c287$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.83757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes14c258.91$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6216334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed No77c257$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.11633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-55.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked No71c236$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.44450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96df…1f97backed Yes43c202.33$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd18d…fc51backed Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes44c199.54$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed Yes21c198$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.581330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b4c…44d8backed No79c198$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed Yes21c198$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5840%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeac2…176dbacked No78c196.73$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked Yes17c196$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.32425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48ff…9f1cbacked Yes11c174.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes20c170.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6339116.1%63 W · 328 L-44.4wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes29c164$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.56650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes8c152.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.81728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick8cpaid+65%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e54…0dc0backed No78c150$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe513…b842backed No80c147$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd502…4974backed No77c146$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.58475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+35.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes14c144.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.34425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes21c142$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes23c138$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.74825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-60.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cac…6f43backed Yes12c134$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed Yes28c128$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.841154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a55…1272backed Yes20c126$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2363…0313backed Yes24c124.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca67…2648backed Yes21c123$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8340%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab38…77febacked No79c123$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.83875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+52.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed No80c122$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked No77c119$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb50c…8c30backed No79c116$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x159f…333fbacked No73c115$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.05450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed No71c114$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…9a60backed No77c107$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.61540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed No73c106$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.62742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2356…2dbdbacked Yes24c105.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes29c103$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63c2…ca53backed Yes21c101$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+76.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa80e…dfefbacked Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff3…c49fbacked No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbee7…7165backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10664.5%3 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes18c90$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.89837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6951…cb02backed Yes23c89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.47825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f3…09e0backed No80c89$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbec…8dccbacked No72c86$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.08450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed Yes21c74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3024…0c79backed Yes29c68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.72333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes29c68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7240%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33dc…a539backed No71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick37cpaid+224.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x993c…eae0backed No72c59$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes21c55.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c4c…be9fbacked No71c55$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.954100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+82.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d87…190cbacked Yes41c54.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No56c51.87$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.03666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+75.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe43b…3497backed No72c42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.76520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-72.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No66c41.28$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.213342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed No52c39.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No78c38.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.221560%9 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0861…8aaebacked No56c35.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa990…84bebacked No79c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.35450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No73c32.93$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.893426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+33.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcce8…df43backed No79c26.03$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.