TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,348

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,334 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd34b…0004backed No15c9,242$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.564141.5%17 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+10.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No18c4,619$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.2814835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked No14c2,200$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d9…5084backed Yes77c2,141$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+193.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf937…53a1backed No14c1,935$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.46540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f0…2469backed No14c1,839$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.8440%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No30c1,488$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.2512835.9%46 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed No30c1,477$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes69c1,189$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.59540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No17c1,123$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18710630.2%32 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed No10c1,032$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.31468.7%4 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid+96.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed No12c974.94$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.824012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Yes74c785.79$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.98922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1bd…880bbacked No14c763$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0860%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd68…cdd3backed Yes67c746$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.18475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6813…39e6backed Yes70c724$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+41.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5c7…be6fbacked No42c720$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes62c690$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xccc2…271abacked No31c683$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.53520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-70.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8679…bf14backed No15c680.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc562…7c61backed No16c679.29$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.64633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13b6…b339backed No14c678.57$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bae…8200backed No13c655$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-32.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdd07…0058backed No33c641$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.53520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes58c623$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.66475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked Yes67c606$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.98862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+53.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d9…08d2backed No53c600$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3181127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick34cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6478…49f3backed No25c565$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.2540%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x34f9…0540backed No16c558.42$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.14714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-48.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1502…be53backed Yes47c558$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…92cabacked Yes67c536$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+134.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes75c509$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes70c507$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-84.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes72c467$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.76250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad8…9756backed No28c467$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.76714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x374b…9a1fbacked No33c461$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No11c447.77$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.353444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c2…7f19backed No31c445$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e7c…5a5fbacked No33c442$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc6…02ddbacked No14c438.91$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.45955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8d5…1caebacked No38c426$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.8850%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e7…40b4backed No12c419.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04da…dc10backed Yes67c403$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa3e…3b79backed No38c400.83$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.35922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-61.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes68c386$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed No44c380$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.2742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabeb…7a78backed Yes56c380$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7635…9ae0backed No32c376$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x910a…91a9backed No33c357$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.81425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No13c355.37$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.74751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No21c345.82$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.89911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-85.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No15c335.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.335554.5%30 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No6c332.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.421656.3%9 W · 7 L+5.6wins+0.35per pick21cpaid+237.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No21c306.7$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.964938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No14c291.6$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-47.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc22d…180cbacked No16c288.04$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a33…1826backed No15c285.46$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked No16c279.42$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.554131.7%13 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+36.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No27c268.2$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.275944.1%26 W · 33 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb593…28eabacked No38c264$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.32450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked No19c260.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.571241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x094a…e4a9backed No14c260$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed No33c260$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.81154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes70c246$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+91.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb13…2de9backed Yes61c230.77$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.99580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+38.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdea4…4c1dbacked No15c226.67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e3…aeb6backed Yes69c222.97$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-63.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc75…e4bcbacked Yes75c221.86$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.72825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb023…6d90backed Yes58c214$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.88850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked No42c214$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.88683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+45.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No19c201$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.246451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No14c199.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+55.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc20e…e4e3backed No29c180$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4522…ef10backed No19c159.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x351a…5ea8backed No16c157.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47d5…e4d2backed No17c150.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9419…4201backed No14c146.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.42733.3%9 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+4.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7670…cda3backed No14c146$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x321c…18ddbacked Yes70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e12…8fe1backed Yes11c141.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.67742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+89.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No16c139.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.61742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x975b…149bbacked No15c139.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.88742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f6…10fbbacked No16c135$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe723…fc95backed No16c132.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe19c…530fbacked No79c128.01$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa98…b0c1backed No16c124.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.31633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-54.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x062d…de41backed No19c117.37$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c4…a75dbacked No17c111.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10e6…64c7backed No13c110$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5b…fd52backed No15c109$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58a3…7d6abacked No13c104$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x113a…ae84backed No21c103.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1ec…0fb3backed No14c103$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No14c102.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3310517.1%18 W · 87 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36da…e4cdbacked No16c102$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59c4…d6dfbacked Yes59c101.71$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1415119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d8f…fb47backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.