Music · resolved market
Will Smash Into Pieces win Melodifestivalen 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55cbffb4064bdddd4a7154bade8b10776d5df248ce6505677abfe2491a71bae2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,009 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 3c | 3,053$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…4857backed Yes | 3c | 1,529$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,076$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd31…33fdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,008$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 718.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…4154backed Yes | 4c | 677.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 1cpaid | +2,677.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe723…fc95backed Yes | 3c | 592.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 3c | 541.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff0…0a82backed Yes | 6c | 155.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3e…3b79backed Yes | 10c | 153.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…9dedbacked Yes | 11c | 116.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Smash Into Pieces win Melodifestivalen 2026?this page
- Will A*Teens win Melodifestivalen 2026?No won
- Will AleXa win Melodifestivalen 2026?No won
- Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026?Yes won
- Will Greczula win Melodifestivalen 2026?No won
- Will Jacqline win Melodifestivalen 2026?No won
- Will Medina win Melodifestivalen 2026?No won
- Will Robin Bengtsson win Melodifestivalen 2026?No won
- Will Sanna Nielsen win Melodifestivalen 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.