Music · resolved market
Will Greczula win Melodifestivalen 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3010389f6dd738c3580b1811c4109ca4e3b27dc8869b6e661c1bbff8c2cd024d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,052 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2031…4059backed Yes | 12c | 864.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 7c | 694.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…5b3cbacked Yes | 9c | 640.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0f…8a46backed Yes | 22c | 339.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed Yes | 11c | 321.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 6c | 285.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…1244backed Yes | 6c | 266.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…6a86backed Yes | 9c | 230.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…e4bcbacked Yes | 14c | 219.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 208.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff0…0a82backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 6c | 190.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe837…21febacked Yes | 34c | 188$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8a…51eabacked Yes | 34c | 183$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…d349backed Yes | 34c | 182$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba6…9383backed Yes | 34c | 178$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…38c6backed Yes | 34c | 177$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54f…50cfbacked Yes | 34c | 174$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…12dcbacked Yes | 34c | 167$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb268…c8fbbacked Yes | 34c | 166$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b0…157fbacked Yes | 34c | 166$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf48…34fbbacked Yes | 34c | 163$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…0e2abacked Yes | 34c | 162$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b8…ed6ebacked No | 66c | 127$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…c90abacked No | 66c | 125$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…a69dbacked No | 66c | 125$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…c9e4backed No | 66c | 124$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6682…2742backed No | 66c | 123$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d0…5980backed No | 66c | 122$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…9e7bbacked No | 66c | 122$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…2d16backed No | 66c | 122$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382d…eb3abacked Yes | 22c | 121.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f0…8dcabacked No | 66c | 121$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…c110backed No | 66c | 119$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a3…4b59backed No | 66c | 119$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cc…c15ebacked No | 66c | 118$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf9…b1abbacked No | 66c | 118$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5105…5233backed No | 66c | 117$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225d…5a76backed Yes | 34c | 117$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474d…a957backed No | 66c | 115$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…d862backed No | 66c | 110$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…e47fbacked Yes | 10c | 100.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956a…37d8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 97.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…5751backed No | 66c | 96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d70…c730backed Yes | 12c | 94.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98c1…3d1ebacked No | 70c | 78.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 30c | 53.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3e…3b79backed No | 76c | 36.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7670…cda3backed No | 77c | 31.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 70c | 30.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc562…7c61backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Greczula win Melodifestivalen 2026?this page
- Will A*Teens win Melodifestivalen 2026?No won
- Will AleXa win Melodifestivalen 2026?No won
- Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026?Yes won
- Will Jacqline win Melodifestivalen 2026?No won
- Will Medina win Melodifestivalen 2026?No won
- Will Robin Bengtsson win Melodifestivalen 2026?No won
- Will Sanna Nielsen win Melodifestivalen 2026?No won
- Will Smash Into Pieces win Melodifestivalen 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.