TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc562…7c61

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
60
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Olympics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Olympics at 55 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT2330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$164
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advancebacked Sweden · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.68
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$65.99
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.8
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.99
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.13
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Spread: Japan (-1.5)backed Japan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+183.4%+$637.24
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$35.65
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.23
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$301
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$999Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$922.15
FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualification Longshots Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.9
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+177.3%+$158.11
Will Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$134
Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$23.88
Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.93
All 23 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$162.49
Will Atalanta advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+117.4%+$19.2
Will Borussia Dortmund advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+122.2%+$22
Will Galatasaray advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$41.4
Will Juventus advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$44.27
Will Real Madrid advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+40.8%+$15.37
Will Bayer Leverkusen advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+66.7%+$24
Will Olympiacos advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$10.97
Will Atlético Madrid advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+32.7%+$42.83
Will Club Brugge advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+31.6%+$16.08
All 10 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Olympics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 224.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
Ty Jerome: Points O/U 17.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$34.88
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.