Music · resolved market
Will Emilija win Supernova 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f90923a325207c1ae23010da85829f6d68a85e4c7e67a50afdc9013f0245475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ec…663bbacked Yes | 33c | 700$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked No | 66c | 685$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 34c | 345$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…40d7backed Yes | 34c | 279$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked No | 66c | 279$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…a127backed Yes | 34c | 274$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 60c | 242$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes | 16c | 159.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc562…7c61backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked Yes | 34c | 66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…8cc1backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 71c | 55.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 13.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Emilija win Supernova 2026?this page
- Will Atvara win Supernova 2026?Yes won
- Will Elpo win Supernova 2026?No won
- Will Kautkaili win Supernova 2026?No won
- Will Legzdina win Supernova 2026?No won
- Will Miks Galvanovskis win Supernova 2026?No won
- Will Robert Ox win Supernova 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.