Music · resolved market
Will Atvara win Supernova 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb6a620fc40f70b9d6368c8770474ac35e1e08715bd1a2df51e13ad60a1dcadc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18fa…3730backed Yes | 15c | 943$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes | 44c | 509.52$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.52 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…0cdebacked No | 51c | 450$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 42c | 389.62$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 38c | 333.74$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.35 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…2036backed Yes | 40c | 291.56$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.35 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 240.19$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.25 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f80…2804backed Yes | 40c | 187$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.33 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf968…84bdbacked Yes | 47c | 158.34$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 106.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.97 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes | 34c | 90.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 34c | 88.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +174.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 67c | 72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 77c | 72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 23c | 61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 38c | 46.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 43.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf948…0931backed Yes | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atvara win Supernova 2026?this page
- Will Elpo win Supernova 2026?No won
- Will Emilija win Supernova 2026?No won
- Will Kautkaili win Supernova 2026?No won
- Will Legzdina win Supernova 2026?No won
- Will Miks Galvanovskis win Supernova 2026?No won
- Will Robert Ox win Supernova 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.