Music · resolved market
Will Kautkaili win Supernova 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63bc5b46e379fd257e547d4add29739ac90c551c5c7a802e5c8f847025566f3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 28c | 723.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.03 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed Yes | 26c | 662$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…92b3backed Yes | 25c | 637$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 25c | 616$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 75c | 595.25$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf968…84bdbacked Yes | 19c | 567.74$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes | 26c | 548$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed No | 75c | 546$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed Yes | 19c | 510$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 25c | 482.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed No | 74c | 403$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 74c | 389$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…57e8backed No | 74c | 370$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed No | 74c | 350$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 26c | 350$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…6622backed Yes | 25c | 314$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 75c | 314$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes | 26c | 267$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…86c4backed Yes | 34c | 264.53$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 74c | 258$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…e4a9backed No | 72c | 240.13$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 220$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…3730backed No | 74c | 178$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…8cc1backed No | 76c | 145.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…b0c1backed No | 76c | 136.56$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed Yes | 26c | 121$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed No | 75c | 113$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3c…3ebcbacked No | 75c | 80.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf664…c89bbacked Yes | 24c | 75.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 73.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 24c | 63.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes | 25c | 63.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…132abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf948…0931backed Yes | 53c | 27.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kautkaili win Supernova 2026?this page
- Will Atvara win Supernova 2026?Yes won
- Will Elpo win Supernova 2026?No won
- Will Emilija win Supernova 2026?No won
- Will Legzdina win Supernova 2026?No won
- Will Miks Galvanovskis win Supernova 2026?No won
- Will Robert Ox win Supernova 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.