AI · resolved market
Will "M5" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b3e952a78cf20047bc4f24c69bdd2b5aba38f67db4e6b9484032ba1661eafd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,673 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 8c | 6,052$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,544.69 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 59c | 2,195$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.9 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 33c | 1,160$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.15 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 5c | 1,115$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.58per pick | 26cpaid | +987.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…2c3cbacked No | 7c | 807.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 34cpaid | +367.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…1f0fbacked Yes | 25c | 785.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4acf…106cbacked Yes | 79c | 781.24$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 615.28$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.74 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed No | 19c | 613$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.76 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 21c | 599.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9e…8e63backed Yes | 15c | 434.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce6…9458backed Yes | 80c | 350$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 30c | 345.82$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.43 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…bb0fbacked Yes | 79c | 344.36$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…0e21backed No | 11c | 322.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +158.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked No | 57c | 276$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.68 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 43c | 276$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 5c | 264.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.02 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 5c | 244.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.32 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 25c | 238.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.38 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 19c | 224$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.89 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde6d…0f58backed Yes | 8c | 220$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 8c | 205$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.16 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +6.6wins | +0.66per pick | 24cpaid | +726.8%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 69c | 202.62$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.99 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ef…0a4cbacked Yes | 50c | 200.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 35c | 159.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ed…f09dbacked Yes | 39c | 150$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe042…f206backed No | 22c | 140$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +360.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…34bdbacked Yes | 80c | 125.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…4cffbacked No | 12c | 122.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +5.5wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +357.3%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 67c | 117.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked No | 19c | 107$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc5…1cb0backed No | 16c | 106.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +532.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b6…90d3backed No | 11c | 92.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +355.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed No | 49c | 85.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…03ccbacked Yes | 24c | 83.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 61c | 82.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…3379backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd651…568cbacked Yes | 24c | 50.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950f…761cbacked Yes | 69c | 46.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…f355backed Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 68c | 35.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3b03…788ebacked Yes | 29c | 34.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c3…a6bebacked Yes | 80c | 31.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked Yes | 52c | 19.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4b…f5f7backed Yes | 60c | 17.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "M5" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?this page
- Will "Apple Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple Music" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple TV" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple Watch" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "CarPlay" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Engineering" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Google" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Megapixel" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Microsoft" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Most Advanced" or "Most Powerful" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Performance" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Siri" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Stabilization" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Ultra-wide" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.