AI · resolved market
Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aa528e9898bd2250ecdf8f0f160481b8c6edf96caf94f4e6819b34f35345504
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,180 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb90…6050backed No | 14c | 1,664$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…1f0fbacked Yes | 20c | 987.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed Yes | 67c | 715$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.9wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x084b…98d0backed Yes | 15c | 667.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x619a…3784backed Yes | 5c | 629.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed No | 19c | 622$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed No | 26c | 550$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed Yes | 75c | 502$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 74c | 480$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed No | 25c | 378$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +123%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed No | 33c | 361$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 9c | 346.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.37 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked Yes | 74c | 346$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 13c | 338$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.77 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 22c | 307$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.46 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ba…3058backed Yes | 80c | 277.65$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 26c | 276$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 55c | 231.36$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…990dbacked No | 33c | 227$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…1c15backed No | 33c | 213$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…9ba9backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 15c | 197.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.31 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +6.6wins | +0.66per pick | 24cpaid | +726.8%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 11c | 192.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.68 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 30c | 189.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.93 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 21c | 172.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.26 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x636c…ea28backed Yes | 78c | 156$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 11c | 151.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 78c | 151$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.78 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…24debacked No | 23c | 148.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…6747backed Yes | 75c | 140$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c27…aaecbacked Yes | 15c | 135.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 25c | 124$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…6435backed Yes | 75c | 119.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…2c3cbacked No | 25c | 101.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 34cpaid | +367.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…79c9backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…f3babacked No | 30c | 97.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +145.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86c6…a2fabacked Yes | 12c | 94.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 41c | 90.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca77…89bcbacked Yes | 29c | 87.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 67c | 86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 12c | 85.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…4cffbacked No | 24c | 84.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +5.5wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +357.3%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce6…9458backed Yes | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 79.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 76c | 78.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 63c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 61c | 67.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…346dbacked Yes | 79c | 38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 37.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa30d…08b7backed Yes | 80c | 33.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 76c | 26.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb14…e70ebacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…e562backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…a6a5backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c3…a6bebacked Yes | 79c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…e6b2backed Yes | 70c | 17.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 80c | 15.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?this page
- Will "Apple Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple Music" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple TV" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple Watch" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "CarPlay" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Engineering" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Google" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "M5" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Megapixel" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Microsoft" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Most Advanced" or "Most Powerful" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Performance" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Siri" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Stabilization" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Ultra-wide" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.