AI · resolved market
Will "CarPlay" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6591397cc19ecfe8a40103b2f6a0db6407e07a0bda165c0bf3fbb0a0d9be3d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,625 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked No | 63c | 1,322$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked No | 64c | 840$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x541a…1740backed Yes | 36c | 840$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked Yes | 37c | 796$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.52 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 36c | 567$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed No | 64c | 394$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.84 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed Yes | 37c | 388$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…7861backed No | 64c | 173$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.28 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 37c | 138$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ef…0a4cbacked Yes | 42c | 72.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 58c | 56.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 58c | 49.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…a3f2backed No | 69c | 48.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…24debacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 73c | 19.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "CarPlay" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?this page
- Will "Apple Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple Music" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple TV" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple Watch" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Engineering" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Google" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "M5" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Megapixel" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Microsoft" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Most Advanced" or "Most Powerful" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Performance" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Siri" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Stabilization" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Ultra-wide" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.