AI · resolved market
Will "Ultra-wide" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4fbb00c506b175a8bf3e1246046defe65f4ee3b4fdf60e59a123e36beb16ed6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,626 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 2c | 1,777$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 46c | 1,475$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.69 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,251$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed No | 54c | 1,229$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.34 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed No | 56c | 947$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.68 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…2d93backed No | 54c | 927$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 33c | 915$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed No | 53c | 892$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.24 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked Yes | 44c | 766$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed No | 67c | 677$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.41 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…1d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 569$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed Yes | 46c | 558$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 12c | 542$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked No | 68c | 492$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 46c | 469$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.74 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed Yes | 47c | 373$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 67c | 328$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.35 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 32c | 317$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed No | 68c | 315$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed No | 63c | 293$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed Yes | 37c | 293$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.41 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2764…a652backed No | 69c | 288.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 46c | 202$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.92 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed Yes | 44c | 181$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 68c | 115$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 90.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x66ef…0a4cbacked Yes | 26c | 78.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…7a81backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 70c | 61.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f06…add9backed Yes | 42c | 34.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 66c | 31.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 77c | 26.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…1cefbacked No | 63c | 23.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Ultra-wide" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?this page
- Will "Apple Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple Music" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple TV" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple Watch" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "CarPlay" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Engineering" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Google" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "M5" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Megapixel" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Microsoft" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Most Advanced" or "Most Powerful" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Performance" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Siri" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Stabilization" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.