AI · resolved market
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x022a73d97a18dcb7a08d18e2e28f50f202c8cc81046890753282630749f304c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,290 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 10c | 3,978$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,585.31 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 64c | 1,262$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.68 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked Yes | 17c | 700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 3c | 700$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.58per pick | 26cpaid | +987.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed No | 9c | 694$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 50c | 644.73$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.8 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed No | 17c | 621$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.43 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 9c | 534$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.94 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked No | 17c | 528$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 4c | 450$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.62 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +6.6wins | +0.66per pick | 24cpaid | +726.8%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 4c | 415.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.05 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…4cffbacked No | 12c | 413.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.36 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +5.5wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +357.3%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 13c | 334.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 70c | 320.87$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 3c | 320.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.13 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 9c | 318$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.38 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ed…f09dbacked Yes | 51c | 286.27$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 19c | 286$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.66 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 41c | 261.43$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.08 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed Yes | 21c | 250.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…0e21backed No | 16c | 244.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +158.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80d…0c0cbacked Yes | 9c | 223.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…7d5abacked Yes | 9c | 222.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…5cf7backed Yes | 24c | 204.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 24c | 203.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.96 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 178.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 69c | 169.85$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 70c | 164.72$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 31c | 151.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.71 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 10c | 151.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed No | 17c | 146$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…2c3cbacked No | 10c | 140$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 34cpaid | +367.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…9074backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 16c | 111$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed No | 60c | 93.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 78c | 85.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 34c | 74.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 55c | 68.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…f355backed Yes | 76c | 65.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…9834backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…2fedbacked Yes | 40c | 47.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 75c | 32.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 63c | 29.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…2722backed Yes | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf008…7197backed Yes | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?this page
- Will "Apple Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple Music" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple TV" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple Watch" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "CarPlay" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Engineering" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Google" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "M5" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Megapixel" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Microsoft" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Most Advanced" or "Most Powerful" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Performance" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Siri" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Stabilization" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Ultra-wide" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.