AI · resolved market
Will "Google" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ee54c3ced2a44c2a4f013d41748bf95b1b991a2766183a25f665671f5bc12de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,202 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked No | 78c | 719$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…2238backed No | 49c | 558$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 21c | 479$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.59 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…b42cbacked Yes | 16c | 448$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed Yes | 51c | 376$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.76 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68ba…0e6abacked No | 49c | 331$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 21c | 300.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2931…edc0backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed Yes | 51c | 299$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed Yes | 21c | 287$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed Yes | 51c | 235$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 43c | 189.16$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.68 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…6e02backed Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…9074backed Yes | 76c | 131.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked No | 79c | 87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…db75backed Yes | 24c | 60.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 21c | 59.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 47c | 56.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…2c6bbacked Yes | 39c | 51.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 26c | 50.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 27c | 45.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…129abacked Yes | 29c | 44.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122a…71c2backed Yes | 70c | 43.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 66cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 76c | 29.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 75c | 28.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…66d7backed Yes | 60c | 26.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…27bebacked Yes | 43c | 24.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…a061backed Yes | 44c | 24.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 57c | 19.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed No | 79c | 19.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c08…1ff6backed No | 79c | 19.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…24debacked No | 73c | 18.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6713…5de1backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Google" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?this page
- Will "Apple Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple Music" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple TV" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple Watch" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "CarPlay" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Engineering" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "M5" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Megapixel" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Microsoft" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Most Advanced" or "Most Powerful" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Performance" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Siri" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Stabilization" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Ultra-wide" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.