AI · resolved market
Will "Siri" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3ed2e18dc31ca915f039c22251d78bef8a0e5b15f69c032bd275688a38f7a28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,227 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb976…c213backed No | 44c | 1,114$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.84 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 56c | 1,109$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.04 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 57c | 828$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked No | 38c | 738$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.56 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed No | 43c | 718$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…ee62backed Yes | 53c | 698$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 57c | 571$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed No | 43c | 486$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 47c | 464$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 43cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…2e4abacked Yes | 62c | 439$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed Yes | 62c | 299$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed No | 47c | 234$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.02 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424d…ea21backed No | 43c | 226.46$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 63c | 199.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed No | 43c | 195$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.30per pick | 31cpaid | +144.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…006dbacked Yes | 70c | 190$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1a…c720backed No | 30c | 190$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 33c | 146.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c6…a2fabacked Yes | 7c | 143.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x310a…91f3backed No | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb90…6050backed Yes | 71c | 123.08$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 77c | 115.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 13c | 103.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…ce19backed No | 40c | 99.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 42c | 95.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed No | 67c | 94.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 52c | 93.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…fbb0backed Yes | 29c | 86.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 57c | 63.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd1df…da77backed Yes | 67c | 59.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 57c | 57.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…4cffbacked No | 41c | 48.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +5.5wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +357.3%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 49c | 48.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a1…68bfbacked Yes | 64c | 46.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked Yes | 44c | 46.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…03ccbacked Yes | 46c | 43.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fce…b30dbacked Yes | 51c | 43.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 42c | 39.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x768a…4f50backed No | 35c | 35.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 34.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x91d3…3576backed Yes | 59c | 33.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122a…71c2backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 66cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb2…8546backed No | 46c | 23.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0842…7a08backed Yes | 59c | 20.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4d…5ff1backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…0cdebacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ab92backed Yes | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…08dcbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…9a79backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Siri" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?this page
- Will "Apple Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple Music" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple TV" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple Watch" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "CarPlay" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Engineering" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Google" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "M5" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Megapixel" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Microsoft" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Most Advanced" or "Most Powerful" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Performance" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Stabilization" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Ultra-wide" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.