AI · resolved market
Will "Apple Watch" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x305aed72121b23bb80b4620f2326deeb396f8f633a214649a493bf46c1ddcc1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,526 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bda…a277backed No | 49c | 40,000$19,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…ff4fbacked Yes | 51c | 40,000$20,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 38c | 1,157$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.34 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 62c | 1,067$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…fb46backed No | 46c | 612$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 56c | 387$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.72 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 44c | 387$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.72 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed Yes | 54c | 336$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.44 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 62c | 304$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.48 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed Yes | 17c | 288$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 54c | 268$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x877a…066abacked No | 19c | 257.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +415.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed No | 38c | 222$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 6c | 214.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf41…b2fcbacked Yes | 8c | 202.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed Yes | 54c | 202$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed No | 46c | 194$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…7d5abacked Yes | 11c | 186.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 21c | 161.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…61bebacked Yes | 69c | 128.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 106$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 101.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…8387backed Yes | 56c | 96.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 22c | 89.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 29c | 75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +6.6wins | +0.66per pick | 24cpaid | +726.8%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 69.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 73c | 56.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…4f69backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…2294backed No | 46c | 43.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 44c | 28.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…eb18backed Yes | 69c | 27.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…fd04backed Yes | 79c | 25.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380e…5f39backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 59c | 19.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 54c | 18.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b4…2a5cbacked Yes | 71c | 16.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721d…ffe1backed No | 78c | 13.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Apple Watch" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?this page
- Will "Apple Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple Music" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Apple TV" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "CarPlay" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Engineering" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Google" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "M5" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Megapixel" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Microsoft" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Most Advanced" or "Most Powerful" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Performance" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Siri" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Stabilization" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "Ultra-wide" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
- Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.