Middle East · resolved market
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dbb01766f4e32919b3659e5066ad2b61a1e545e4d9403496cb22988baa30168
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 15c | 2,724$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.6 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…697dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,981$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 12c | 1,710$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…9a79backed Yes | 13c | 845.47$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 14c | 757.24$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 518.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 21c | 384.19$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 379.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 12c | 304$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 18c | 292.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 16c | 279.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 29c | 273$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 272$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 8c | 210.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed Yes | 20c | 189.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 168.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 20c | 141.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 140.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 135.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4b…0078backed Yes | 9c | 133.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 15c | 105.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 17c | 101.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e7…2fdebacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 28c | 92.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 92.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 89.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed Yes | 41c | 89.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ea…b603backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3c…61e2backed Yes | 35c | 46.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 65c | 36.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 68c | 32.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked No | 66c | 21.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9830…4cc0backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…85d2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf77…d532backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…35d7backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…2ee6backed No | 72c | 18.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30?this page
- Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
- Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.