Middle East · resolved market
Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc7268859768e6b3c8a5e4961a81d1423e8ec621c1efa8bde1195c8b567b5e26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc198…5ac1backed Yes | 13c | 3,901$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…e6efbacked Yes | 16c | 1,800$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 6c | 1,549$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,014$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 11c | 978$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed Yes | 11c | 855.47$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 5c | 763.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 662.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 10c | 595.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 11c | 569$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 550$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 13c | 499.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 430.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 14c | 415.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 77c | 407.77$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.17 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 21c | 344$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 22c | 290.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…1d52backed Yes | 11c | 220$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf77…d532backed Yes | 11c | 212$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…228abacked Yes | 9c | 152.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8b…cf2ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 7cpaid | +332.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…5d2dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 91.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 17c | 64.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 74c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by April 30?this page
- Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
- Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.