Middle East · resolved market
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05fc999a78a3a9bec241be1451810216bc912bcbf24d4fc586f8c482b372ba52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c62…cd27backed No | 0c | 10,700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…5a02backed No | 1c | 1,583$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,574$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 15c | 1,122$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.7 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,120$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.64 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 1,026$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.55 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 37c | 972.33$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.83 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…e56cbacked No | 2c | 665.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 13c | 642.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.92 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked No | 75c | 549$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…0eeabacked No | 6c | 541.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 75c | 513$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.75 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…6dc5backed No | 75c | 512$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 2c | 488.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…8a3cbacked No | 3c | 377.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed No | 4c | 374.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…ed3dbacked Yes | 18c | 370.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Yes | 11c | 350$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ca…df8abacked No | 3c | 311.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 13c | 311.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.67 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2948…788abacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +8.0wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 51c | 297.15$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.55 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…337bbacked Yes | 10c | 296.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.3 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2c…a9f3backed Yes | 35c | 280$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 253.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.56 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 253.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.79 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 8c | 226.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.99 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 212.33$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.29 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 10c | 205.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.34 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cb…01edbacked No | 72c | 204.02$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…8ef7backed Yes | 27c | 192.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.78 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbf…1ad1backed No | 6c | 167.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed Yes | 50c | 155.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e9…0101backed No | 9c | 154.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed Yes | 11c | 140.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +16.4wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 50c | 136$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 128.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.88 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b8…9ee0backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 23c | 76.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 19c | 73.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes | 35c | 68.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…5586backed No | 54c | 55.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 28c | 46.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed No | 60c | 42.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +15.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5d…3328backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 35c | 38.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd2…1519backed Yes | 44c | 34.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 35c | 32.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c0…908fbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 79c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 23.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 57c | 22.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 21.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a7dbbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa78c…ca1ebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb2…1080backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…0847backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?this page
- Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
- Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.