Middle East · resolved market
Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdcdf162ddb5c2b8d20de8126176b0ff1e0f0e1a5af8bc94210664ab222f7c0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 77c | 2,823$2,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.29 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e52…d278backed No | 6c | 1,560$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed No | 25c | 1,476$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 56c | 1,318$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.67 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed No | 23c | 1,290$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 23c | 1,119$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.37 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed Yes | 78c | 822$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x129f…7b9ebacked No | 46c | 816.44$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 71c | 634$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.86 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed No | 4c | 555$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4295…fdb1backed No | 5c | 525$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 523$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…c2dfbacked No | 23c | 414$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 78c | 354$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 22c | 354$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a80…cfdcbacked No | 43c | 295.95$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…726bbacked No | 43c | 267.32$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 22c | 251.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 7c | 236.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 6c | 228.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 36c | 227.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked Yes | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked No | 23c | 179.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 80c | 154.38$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 7c | 144.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked Yes | 70c | 114.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…b7f6backed No | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 23c | 99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed No | 34c | 89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 12c | 87.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e7…2fdebacked No | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 78c | 79.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…0847backed No | 23c | 76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Yes | 70c | 68.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 88 | 60.2%53 W · 35 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ea…b603backed No | 47c | 62.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b8…9ee0backed Yes | 80c | 62.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4391…3c95backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 57c | 54.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…d3d9backed No | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ea…680dbacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…a70ebacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7501…9edbbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…6727backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4e…b076backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb2…1080backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f33…54fcbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30?this page
- Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
- Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.