TailMyPicks
Market

Middle East · resolved market

Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,097
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,118

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,097 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x889c…e375backed Yes49c3,083$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c2,285$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.242217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes5c1,812$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.365745.6%26 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+44%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed No61c1,676$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.737648.7%37 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes19c1,341$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.325414.8%8 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7a…6875backed Yes8c1,062$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.197520%15 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcae4…ccecbacked No70c764$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.21258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes2c700$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.54924.5%12 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1111…ca23backed No52c563.88$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes7c545.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407337%27 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c3…00c8backed No60c417.35$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.45742.1%24 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Yes50c400.19$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.992025%5 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-57.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x169a…55e4backed Yes30c305$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.51540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed Yes30c282$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.61338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes30c279$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.71353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed No57c278$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.685248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed Yes48c262$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.57138%27 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1612239.3%48 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes15c197.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3636626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb593…28eabacked No70c181$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.31250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0666…9fa3backed Yes30c181$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ea…b603backed Yes48c180$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.41546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes6c176$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5642311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed No50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802075%15 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa106…5abbbacked No51c146.63$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c146.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2577636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf0…5a02backed Yes26c140$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes18c129.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.44630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a60…2a67backed No76c120.47$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.371421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-64.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb11b…353fbacked Yes13c120$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.121723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f38…e56cbacked No23c119.47$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.49450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+39.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d89…b77dbacked No23c103.94$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.97757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+67.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a22…17a6backed Yes29c102.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308457.1%48 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed No70c102$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.62347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11b8…9ee0backed Yes59c101.74$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes18c100.79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.11,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes47c95$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6510343.7%45 W · 58 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes26c94.09$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4667841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbcf…ba89backed Yes34c89.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3f…f75dbacked Yes19c82.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed Yes28c71.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.958747.1%41 W · 46 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes22c67.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512542.4%53 W · 72 L+19.6wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+44.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xeb6c…445fbacked No77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b58…d734backed Yes39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+62.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes29c56.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5431728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No77c56.43$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.79981.8%81 W · 18 L+9.7wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+13.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd0de…8795backed No40c54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.151338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-33.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes31c50.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7512223%28 W · 94 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1534234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70c4…980fbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-73.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x571e…67b2backed No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe19d…17d7backed Yes25c49.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd58c…8954backed Yes48c46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.086235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed Yes24c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610321.4%22 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed Yes48c44.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.222931%9 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1a4…28bbbacked Yes24c42.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed Yes48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7f…6727backed No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.85100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+70.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.813444.8%60 W · 74 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No62c37.47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.116366.7%42 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No71c34.9$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1232345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c33.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1234432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9958…a221backed Yes53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x966b…2ee6backed No72c26.48$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.363066.7%20 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x089c…28f9backed Yes60c25.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x881f…ea6ebacked No68c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x271b…9a60backed Yes78c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed No58c22.41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.419728.9%28 W · 69 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes47c21.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3336035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No66c21.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.313255.3%73 W · 59 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.48253.7%44 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52e3…c0b8backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0685…2b0cbacked No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No69c19.13$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.858482.1%69 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+21.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3082…9446backed No67c18.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.234755.3%26 W · 21 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-16.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7a7…f663backed No80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed No70c16.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.942138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.