Middle East · resolved market
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x699093850ff73cf30baa4c571272900c3162932f9745400256a6455d6b2d0789
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889c…e375backed Yes | 49c | 3,083$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 2,285$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,812$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 61c | 1,676$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.73 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 19c | 1,341$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.32 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 8c | 1,062$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.19 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked No | 70c | 764$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…ca23backed No | 52c | 563.88$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 7c | 545.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…00c8backed No | 60c | 417.35$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.4 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 50c | 400.19$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.99 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed Yes | 30c | 305$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 30c | 282$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 30c | 279$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 57c | 278$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.68 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 48c | 262$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 15c | 197.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 70c | 181$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…9fa3backed Yes | 30c | 181$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ea…b603backed Yes | 48c | 180$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 176$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed No | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked No | 51c | 146.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 146.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…5a02backed Yes | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 18c | 129.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…2a67backed No | 76c | 120.47$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb11b…353fbacked Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…e56cbacked No | 23c | 119.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d89…b77dbacked No | 23c | 103.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed Yes | 29c | 102.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 70c | 102$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b8…9ee0backed Yes | 59c | 101.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 100.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 47c | 95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 94.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcf…ba89backed Yes | 34c | 89.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3f…f75dbacked Yes | 19c | 82.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 28c | 71.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 22c | 67.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…445fbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 29c | 56.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 56.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed No | 40c | 54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 31c | 50.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…980fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe19d…17d7backed Yes | 25c | 49.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 48c | 44.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…28bbbacked Yes | 24c | 42.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…6727backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 62c | 37.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 34.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 33.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…a221backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…2ee6backed No | 72c | 26.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…28f9backed Yes | 60c | 25.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881f…ea6ebacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x271b…9a60backed Yes | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 47c | 21.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 66c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e3…c0b8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 69c | 19.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 67c | 18.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a7…f663backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 70c | 16.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?this page
- Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
- Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.