Middle East · resolved market
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89ff7fd3cfe024900e97d8d9b42f6abe985bbd6e759ba9e68758c8fe8571be66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2086…8ef7backed No | 77c | 2,584$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked Yes | 50c | 896$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50af…d7a0backed Yes | 9c | 784.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 55c | 647.76$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.03 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 58c | 611$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.62 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 33c | 603.59$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.05 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a04…2310backed No | 50c | 603$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed No | 49c | 586.95$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.74 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 7c | 577.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +206%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 527.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 496.33$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked Yes | 57c | 476.88$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.57 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed Yes | 10c | 363.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…b8f1backed Yes | 17c | 346.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 340.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…9a79backed Yes | 62c | 323.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed Yes | 42c | 312$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.04 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 311.07$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 42c | 299$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed No | 50c | 293$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 7c | 232$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked Yes | 16c | 228.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 25c | 223$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -10.3wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0559…c7d8backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked No | 74c | 170$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 32c | 161$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 30c | 146.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +16.4wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 70c | 133.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 66c | 125$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 55c | 122.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 22c | 74.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 46c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 55c | 71.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 18c | 68.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 24c | 64.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed No | 22c | 64.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 39c | 62.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96c0…908fbacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf816…1351backed No | 64c | 58.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 37c | 54.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…e9e8backed No | 54c | 49.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed Yes | 44c | 46.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 61c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 38c | 40.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9830…4cc0backed No | 40c | 40.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cea…0685backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…5d2dbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…445fbacked No | 54c | 31.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 33c | 31.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 37c | 30.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb11b…353fbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e7…2fdebacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 74c | 23.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…3d83backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ea…b603backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc097…5deabacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb2…1080backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae75…9c15backed No | 78c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by April 30?this page
- Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
- Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.