NHL · resolved market
AHL: Charlotte Checkers vs. Hershey Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b56ae4086bb27112d8e1847f11cf11185cc286ca252dd89103977c0c4f8d781
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hershey Bearsof Charlotte Checkers, Hershey Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ec9…3e46backed Charlotte Checkers | 18c | 1,037$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed Charlotte Checkers | 23c | 865$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Hershey Bears | 77c | 572$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Charlotte Checkers | 23c | 570$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Hershey Bears | 77c | 509$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaadd…56dbbacked Charlotte Checkers | 8c | 492$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Charlotte Checkers | 16c | 448$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Hershey Bears | 77c | 354$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked Charlotte Checkers | 23c | 354$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Hershey Bears | 77c | 316$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…8c7ebacked Charlotte Checkers | 8c | 255$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981e…d368backed Hershey Bears | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.