Us Politics · resolved market
Will Christian Menefee win the Texas House special election runoff by 15% or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00d292e96f08b606bb34f16f56beab3f2b8001943bd2976a242f78212bad9582
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68ba…0e6abacked Yes | 71c | 1,361$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +248.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…57e8backed Yes | 76c | 930$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 23c | 913$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 69c | 860$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 77c | 853$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed Yes | 69c | 850$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked No | 24c | 759$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed Yes | 71c | 687$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6c…26e0backed No | 31c | 670$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked No | 30c | 662$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed Yes | 67c | 647$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed No | 18c | 609$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 18c | 609$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…41f6backed No | 30c | 572$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes | 75c | 569$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 77c | 498$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 23c | 498$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed No | 18c | 481$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc351…08f7backed No | 24c | 473$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…dae1backed No | 31c | 468$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…1f63backed No | 26c | 424$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 32c | 417$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 68c | 417$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed No | 30c | 415$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 33c | 404$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc911…fa2bbacked Yes | 67c | 404$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 76c | 393$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…e8e9backed No | 24c | 393$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 25c | 392$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe794…321cbacked No | 31c | 392$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…5907backed Yes | 69c | 381$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed No | 31c | 381$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed No | 30c | 374$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed No | 33c | 373$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…3e46backed Yes | 68c | 364$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed No | 32c | 364$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…644ebacked No | 18c | 357$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…6dc5backed Yes | 77c | 328$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked No | 18c | 312$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 18c | 299$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…829dbacked No | 32c | 285$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 68c | 285$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…0959backed No | 33c | 274$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 18c | 198$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 31c | 180$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed Yes | 74c | 132$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 23c | 111$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 76c | 96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 28.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.