Weather · resolved market
Will more than 350 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30f3013dd8d22513dfe75364f19e7248dfb0d2b4bf88e361cc4622f4f7394c49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 8,442$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 13c | 1,071$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.23 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 13c | 1,057$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.41 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,023$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed Yes | 14c | 1,007$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.98 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 872$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 13c | 863$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed Yes | 13c | 835$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes | 13c | 641$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 13c | 634$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 13c | 619$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…b4e1backed Yes | 19c | 450$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed Yes | 13c | 351$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked Yes | 13c | 340$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…a8c5backed Yes | 13c | 197$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…2238backed Yes | 13c | 191$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 13c | 131.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes | 45c | 44.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 53c | 19.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will more than 350 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?this page
- Will 140 to 169 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?No won
- Will 170 to 199 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?No won
- Will 200 to 229 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?No won
- Will 230 to 259 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?No won
- Will 260 to 289 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?No won
- Will 290 to 319 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?Yes won
- Will 320 to 350 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?No won
- Will fewer than 140 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.