Weather · resolved market
Will fewer than 140 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf25e4371cda6104f1a2586a095a7b4b8178855e1f0e18b80ffc82be7a04246ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 803.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 17c | 746$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.82 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 17c | 746$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 17c | 727$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.59 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed No | 78c | 700$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked Yes | 22c | 684$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc911…fa2bbacked Yes | 22c | 683$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +65%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked No | 78c | 667$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.74 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f9…1783backed Yes | 2c | 528.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758e…4916backed Yes | 17c | 161.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 20c | 161$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 19c | 104.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 78c | 27.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…8b44backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 140 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?this page
- Will 140 to 169 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?No won
- Will 170 to 199 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?No won
- Will 200 to 229 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?No won
- Will 230 to 259 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?No won
- Will 260 to 289 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?No won
- Will 290 to 319 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?Yes won
- Will 320 to 350 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?No won
- Will more than 350 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.