Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Charles Herbster win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee73dd5da8ff615f63c9b1f1816f0120a69f6946a1acbb3e76ff065642597d8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x911a…2484backed Yes | 1c | 10,700$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd6…b7ecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,689$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…c765backed Yes | 1c | 1,654$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 13c | 1,239$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes | 16c | 554$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 16c | 506.37$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…0ec1backed Yes | 12c | 471$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…4578backed Yes | 14c | 407$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 72c | 355$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 14c | 310.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2641…062fbacked Yes | 19c | 281.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked Yes | 28c | 253$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf049…29fdbacked No | 78c | 166$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 9c | 152.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed Yes | 9c | 145$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 9c | 124$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 13c | 113.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x234a…cbffbacked Yes | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 28c | 102$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 98.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 22c | 98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked Yes | 16c | 94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 17c | 91.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 36c | 91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 16c | 63.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…aa3cbacked No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Charles Herbster win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?this page
- Will Jacy Todd win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?Yes won
- Will John Walz win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Sheila Korth-Focken win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.