Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x726f06d70d5e207069e12abd9bc0029318d514bd2c03ef9390bb4786156cb322
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 71c | 5,048$3,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.83 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 3c | 1,242$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 3c | 1,075$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…0b63backed No | 3c | 990$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 5c | 578.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 5c | 528.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 6c | 452.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 394.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 375.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 21c | 350.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed No | 73c | 339$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…86abbacked No | 3c | 338.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 51c | 330$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.9 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed No | 7c | 326.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 78c | 313.62$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 19c | 259.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c13…7b4bbacked Yes | 78c | 255.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 67c | 246$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.82 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2641…062fbacked Yes | 74c | 216.07$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefbe…19b2backed Yes | 77c | 196.6$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…aa4abacked Yes | 52c | 192.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 36c | 189.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 27c | 189$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 30c | 148$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 147$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked No | 21c | 146.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…6feebacked No | 13c | 144.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 14c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed Yes | 29c | 134$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 22c | 132.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…45c6backed No | 12c | 119.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed No | 71c | 110$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185d…4cb4backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 99.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 23c | 91.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 13c | 90.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 23c | 85.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 26c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 18c | 77.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 14c | 76.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…026fbacked Yes | 79c | 69.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 24c | 65.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 23c | 62.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…6533backed No | 71c | 62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 19c | 60.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked No | 22c | 60.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 76c | 60.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc455…ef99backed Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 43c | 49.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…62d0backed Yes | 79c | 42.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes | 29c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 48c | 33.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ed…3832backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…c3b5backed Yes | 75c | 23.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 75c | 19.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 71c | 19.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd6…33a9backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?this page
- Will Charles Herbster win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Jacy Todd win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will John Walz win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Sheila Korth-Focken win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.